Hit Prediction v3.1

Option A scoring — the seven measurable dimensions only (intro, chorus arrival, runtime, LUFS, chord/vamp structure, vocal range, verse→chorus energy lift). No hidden penalties. Tracks that pass every rule are flagged requires human review because objective rules can't judge melody, taste or lyric.

Fully calibrated genres in v3.1: pop, hip-hop, reggae. Other genres use their v3.0 legacy bands.

Upload your track to test for hit potential

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Select target genre (or auto-detect)

Manual selection applies that genre's v3.1 thresholds exactly. Auto-detect keeps the current selection in the parameters below.

🕒 Prediction horizon

The horizon is baked into the calibrated bands. Switch between v3.1 and v3.0 legacy to compare how the same inputs map onto different windows.

Active horizon: v3.0 (current) · Jan 2026 → Jul 2026. The scoring, model-parameters preview and final mark below all use this horizon.

v3.1 calibrated genre bands

Metric	pop	hip-hop	reggae
Intro (s)	4 to 12	5 to 14	5 to 12
Chorus arrival (s)	28 to 38	28 to 42	32 to 42
Runtime (s)	200 to 260	200 to 265	210 to 275
LUFS	-10.5 to -8.5	-10 to -7.5	-11 to -9
Chords / vamps	2 to 5	1 to 4	2 to 4
Vocal range (st)	9 to 18	8 to 16	9 to 17
Core beat feature	Steady 4/4 backbeat	Hard 808 / kick-driven groove	Off-beat skank / one-drop rhythm

Audio features

Genre profile

Intro length (sec)

Chorus arrival (sec)

Runtime (sec)

Integrated loudness (LUFS)

Unique chords

Vocal range (semitones)

Verse→chorus energy lift

Niche-genre fairness

✅ All Hit Prediction settings look consistent — no conflicts detected.

Model parameters — live preview

Genre profile: pop · v3.0 (current) (Jan 2026 → Jul 2026) · v3.1 calibrated genre · Core beat: Legacy pop 4/4 (v3.0)

How each current input maps onto the underlying model for the selected time window. Change any field above and this table updates instantly.

Dimension	Your value	Optimal band	Medium band	Matched	Score
Intro length	8s	5–12	12–15	High	1.0 / 1.0
Chorus arrival	24s	18–28	28–32	High	2.0 / 2.0
Runtime	195s	153–239	131–278	High	1.0 / 1.0
LUFS	-9	-10.5–-8.5	-11.5–-10.5	High	1.5 / 1.5
Chords / vamps	4	3–4	5–6	High	1.5 / 1.5
Vocal range	12 st	12–20	8–26	High	1.5 / 1.5
Energy lift	yes	yes	—	High	1.5 / 1.5
Tier thresholds: ≥ 8.5 High · ≥ 6.5 Medium · < 6.5 Low					/ 10.0

Preview vs final mark

✅ In sync

Confirms the live preview above uses the same rubric as the results card. Both columns run calculate_hit_potential(); the only legitimate difference is niche-genre fairness floors applied to the final mark.

Dimension	Preview	Final mark	Δ	Match
Intro length	1.0 / 1.0	1.0 / 1.0	—	✓
Chorus arrival	2.0 / 2.0	2.0 / 2.0	—	✓
Runtime	1.0 / 1.0	1.0 / 1.0	—	✓
LUFS	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—	✓
Chords / vamps	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—	✓
Vocal range	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—	✓
Energy lift	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—	✓
Total	10.0 / 10.0	10.0 / 10.0	—	tier ✓

Fairness floor impact

Niche-genre fairness is off — no floor adjustments are being applied. Preview and final mark score from the same raw rubric.

Horizon comparison — v3.1 vs v3.0

Same inputs, both horizons. Niche fairness: off

Shows how the current inputs would score under each release-window calibration. Only genres recalibrated in v3.1 (pop) will differ; other genres score identically across horizons.

Dimension	v3.0 (current)Jan 2026 → Jul 2026	v3.1 legacy reference set (paused)Jul 2026 → Jan 2027	Δ (v3.0 − v3.1)
Intro length	1.0 / 1.0	1.0 / 1.0	—
Chorus arrival	2.0 / 2.0	1.2 / 2.0	-0.8
Runtime	1.0 / 1.0	0.7 / 1.0	-0.3
LUFS	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—
Chords / vamps	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—
Vocal range	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—
Energy lift	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5	—
Total	10.0 / 10	8.9 / 10	-1.1
Tier	High Hit Potential	High Hit Potential	same

v3.0 spec reference

Source: Hit Prediction Module v3 — 40-track calibration set (2019–2026). Public factual data only. This is the doc these scoring bands and fairness floors (intro ≥ 0.7, chorus ≥ 1.4, runtime ≥ 0.7) are calibrated against.

Universal rules (40/40 compliance)

Rule	Compliance	Significance
4-chord diatonic progression	40/40 (100%)	Complex harmony is actively avoided in chart-topping pop.
Verse→Chorus energy lift	40/40 (100%)	Dynamic contrast at the chorus boundary is non-negotiable.
Hook lands on/near highest phrase note	40/40 (100%)	Melodic peak mapping is universal for memorability.
4/4 time signature	38/40 (95%)	Only Heat Waves and Sure Thing deviate.

Genre profiles (mean LUFS, chorus, intro)

Genre	Tracks	LUFS mean	LUFS range	Chorus mean	Chorus range	Intro mean
Pop	13	-9.62	-10.9 to -8.8	23.2s	19–28s	8.1s
Disco-Pop	6	-9.38	-9.8 to -9.0	25.2s	24–27s	8.8s
Pop-Dance	5	-8.88	-9.0 to -8.7	21.2s	20–23s	6.4s
Alt-Pop	4	-9.95	-11.4 to -8.6	23.5s	17–31s	8.0s
Ballad	3	-12.40	-12.8 to -12.1	36.7s	35–38s	13.7s
Afrobeats	3	-10.43	-10.7 to -10.2	26.3s	26–27s	10.3s
Pop-Punk	2	-8.60	-8.7 to -8.5	18.5s	18–19s	5.5s
R&B	2	-11.05	-11.3 to -10.8	28.5s	28–29s	9.5s
Synth-Pop	2	-9.95	-10.1 to -9.8	24.5s	24–25s	9.0s

40-track calibration dataset

#	Title	Artist	BPM	Key	LUFS	Intro	Chorus	Runtime	Genre	Peak
1	Bad Habits	Ed Sheeran	126	Bm	-9.4	8s	22s	3:51	Pop	#1
2	Shivers	Ed Sheeran	142	D	-9.2	12s	25s	3:27	Pop	#1
3	drivers license	Olivia Rodrigo	78	Bb	-12.3	15s	38s	4:02	Ballad	#1
4	good 4 u	Olivia Rodrigo	166	Fm	-8.7	6s	18s	2:58	Pop-Punk	#1
5	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	118	C	-10.1	10s	24s	3:35	Synth-Pop	#1
6	Levitating	Dua Lipa	103	Fm	-9.8	8s	27s	3:23	Disco-Pop	#5
7	STAY	The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber	170	C	-8.5	5s	19s	2:21	Pop-Punk	#1
8	Heat Waves	Glass Animals	80	B	-11.4	12s	31s	3:58	Alt-Pop	#5
9	MONTERO	Lil Nas X	148	Gm	-9.1	7s	20s	2:48	Pop	#1
10	As It Was	Harry Styles	174	A	-9.7	8s	23s	2:47	Pop	#1
11	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	118	G	-9.3	10s	24s	3:20	Disco-Pop	#1
12	Unholy	Sam Smith & Kim Petras	132	Cm	-8.9	7s	21s	2:39	Pop-Dance	#1
13	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	108	B	-10.2	11s	26s	3:59	Afrobeats	#3
14	Seven	Jung Kook ft. Latto	126	A	-9	6s	20s	3:04	Pop-Dance	#1
15	Kill Bill	SZA	90	E	-10.8	9s	28s	2:33	R&B	#2
16	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	111	Gm	-9.5	8s	25s	2:57	Disco-Pop	#1
17	Escapism.	RAYE ft. 070 Shake	123	Dm	-10.5	10s	27s	4:32	Alt-Pop	#1
18	greedy	Tate McRae	121	C	-8.8	5s	19s	2:12	Pop	#3
19	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	97	G	-10.7	10s	26s	3:21	Pop	#1
20	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	95	A	-9.6	7s	24s	2:58	Pop	#1
21	Break My Soul	Beyoncé	122	Fm	-9.2	9s	26s	4:38	Disco-Pop	#1
22	About Damn Time	Lizzo	118	F	-9	10s	25s	3:12	Disco-Pop	#3
23	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	126	Gm	-8.7	6s	21s	2:55	Pop-Dance	#1
24	Cold Heart	Elton John & Dua Lipa	114	Am	-9.5	8s	24s	3:22	Disco-Pop	#1
25	Boy's a liar Pt. 2	PinkPantheress	132	C	-8.6	5s	17s	2:11	Alt-Pop	#2
26	Cupid (Twin Ver.)	FIFTY FIFTY	120	D	-9.9	8s	23s	2:54	Pop	#8
27	Espresso	Sabrina Carpenter	124	G	-9.1	7s	22s	2:29	Pop	#1
28	Good Luck, Babe!	Chappell Roan	138	Fm	-9.8	8s	25s	3:38	Synth-Pop	#5
29	Water	Tyla	116	A	-10.4	9s	26s	3:21	Afrobeats	#4
30	Taste	Sabrina Carpenter	120	C	-9.2	6s	22s	2:37	Pop	#1
31	Beautiful Things	Benson Boone	72	G	-12.1	12s	35s	3:41	Ballad	#1
32	yes, and?	Ariana Grande	128	Cm	-9	7s	23s	3:18	Pop-Dance	#1
33	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	76	Dm	-12.8	14s	37s	3:42	Ballad	#3
34	Die With A Smile	Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga	110	E	-9.7	9s	25s	3:34	Pop	#1
35	Sweetest Pie	Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa	124	Gm	-8.8	6s	21s	3:21	Pop-Dance	#11
36	Sure Thing	Miguel	90	A	-11.3	10s	29s	3:15	R&B	#4
37	People	Libianca	112	Cm	-10.7	11s	27s	3:04	Afrobeats	#2
38	Miss You	Oliver Tree	140	Fm	-9.3	5s	19s	3:26	Alt-Pop	#3
39	Golden Hour	Jax ft. Calum Scott	84	D	-10.9	10s	28s	3:29	Pop	#6

Total score

10.0 / 10

Potential tier

High Hit Potential

Confidence

100%

⚠️ Status: Not obviously failing — requires human review. Passes every measurable rule; melody, taste and lyric still need a human ear.

Category breakdown

Intro length1.0 / 1.0
Chorus arrival2.0 / 2.0
Runtime1.0 / 1.0
Loudness (LUFS)1.5 / 1.5
Unique chords1.5 / 1.5
Vocal range1.5 / 1.5
Verse→chorus energy lift1.5 / 1.5